Monday, February 2, 2009

Pirates - Could the perfect storm break the losing streak?


The Pittsburgh Pirates have been just plain bad. Expectations aren't much better for the coming season either. However, it seems to me that the current roster has a ton of potential. My question is this: If the stars aligned and the Pirates players play to their potential, could the team be competitive this season? Take a look at my positional analysis:

C - Ryan Doumit - Had a breakout season last year and proved he's a great clutch hitter. If Doumit continues playing like he did last season, a .300 average and 20 HR's isn't out of the question.

1B - Adam LaRoche - If LaRoche can find a way to hit in May the way he does in August, he will easily put together an All-Star season. I do not think it's unreasonable to think that LaRoche could hit .290 with 30+ HR's.

2B - Freddy Sanchez - Sanchez was never really healthy last season. If Sanchez returns to his 2007 form when he won the NL batting title, he will hit over .300 with 8-10 HR.

3B - Andy LaRoche - LaRoche has a plethora of upside and potential. It's not inconceivable to thnk that LaRoche can hit .275 with 15 HR in his first full season in the big leagues.

SS - Jack Wilson - Wilson will be playing for a contract, and possibly another team this season. Wilson's defense is always solid, but his bat has been sporatic. We saw Wilson battle for the National League's leader in hits a few years ago. If Wilson can get the stick together, he could have a .280 - .300 season and play solid defense.

LF - Brandon Moss & Craig Monroe - Moss has some pop in his bat and a lot of upside. Monroe is a proven veteran that his 28 HR's a couple of seasons ago. If the stars aligned, I think that Monroe can Moss could hit 25 HR combined in a LF platoon.

CF - Nate McLouth - McLouth put together an all-star season last year and he won the National League Gold Glove award for CF. If Nate can just keep playing somewhere near last year's level, then he may end up in the all-star game again.

RF - Eric Hinske & Steve Pearce - Pearce blew through the minor leagues a few seasons ago and hit the wall at the major league level last season. He showed flashes of promise, but did not play at nearly the level he was accustomed to. The Pirates are still intrigued with Pearce's ability and he will likely be platooning with Eric Hinske. Hinske hit 20 HR last season without being an every day player. With Pearce's power potential, I think the Pearce/Hinske platoon could hit 25-30 HR.

Possible Bench Players: Nyjer Morgan, Ramon Vazquez, Luis Cruz, Robinson Diaz, Brian Bixler, and the OF platoon guys. Obviously, they can't all be there....but I suspect these guys will be in the mix.

Offensively, the Pirates could potentially put of power numbers that they have been lacking for some time. It's been a long time since the Pirates have had this kind of power potential offensively throughout the lineup.

Starting Pitching:

Paul Maholm: Maholm emerged as the staff Ace last season...Just keep building

Ian Snell: If Snell can find a way to be consistent, he could put a 15 win season together and be among the league leaders in strike outs. He seems to lack the "want to" at times, but new pitching coach Joe Kerrigan will hold him more accountable...

Ross Ohelndorf - Tons of ability. Too early to tell right now, but has the tools to be a real solid #3 pitcher.

Tom Gorzelanny - If Gorzo can return to 07' form, then he may compete for the "staff ace" title. Gorzo saw how conditioning positively affected Paul Maholm last season, he focused on his own conditioning. Gorzelanny showed up at mini camp this year 15 lbs. lighter. Look for Gorzelanny to have an impressive season.

Zach Duke - Duke was 18-17 after his first two seasons in the major leagues. He followed up those seasons with a 3-8 lackluster season last year. If Duke returns to form, he could have a very good season again.

Jeff Karstens and Phil Dumatrait will be battling for one of those 5 spots as well. Dumatrait, a former first round pick, started impressively last season before succumbing to injury. Karstens flashed episodes of greatness in his short period of time in a Bucco uniform last season...but he showed flashes of "un-greatness" as well.

Closer: Matt Capps tallied up 39 saves in his first season and a half of being a big league closer. He has been completely dominating at times and could be a huge factor if the Pirates are going to put a winning season together.

Relief Pitchers: Likely two of the pitchers that do not win starting jobs, John Grabow (Arguably one of the best left-handed pitchers in the league), Tyler Yates, Denny Bautista, Sean Burnett, T.J. Beam, Chris Hansen, and Romulo Sanchez.

Overall, the Pirates roster is beginning to evolve and I don't think it's out of the question for the Pirates to put an above .500 season together. Additionally, Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker might be ready to visit Pittsburgh this season...and Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata might not be too far behind. (within a few seasons)

The Pirates are building a solid core and I'm beginning to drink the Neal Huntington Kool-Aid.

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