Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Who'd you rather - Tomlin vs. Cowher - A statistical analysis

If you had to choose, which coach has done a better job in Pittsburgh - Mike Tomlin or Bill Cowher? Mike Tomlin has been the head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers for 6 years, so I compared Cowher's last 6 years in Pittsburgh to Tomlin's tenure. It's interesting to see how philosophies have changed and the ultimate impact they've had on the team. I'm not sure who's better, but take a look at the data and you decide.

Tomlin's Tenure: 2007 - 2012 (6 seasons) --- Cowher's Tenure: 2001 - 2006 (Final 6 seasons)

RECORD
Tomlin: 63 - 33
Cowher: 63 - 32 - 1

Super Bowl Victories
Tomlin: 1
Cowher: 1

DEFENSE

Pass Yds Allowed
Tomlin: 17,921
Cowher: 18,840

Pass TD's Allowed
Tomlin: 105
Cowher: 108

Rush Yds Allowed
Tomlin: 8,211
Cowher: 8,398

Rush TD's Allowed
Tomlin: 41
Cowher: 62

Turnovers Forced
Tomlin: 146
Cowher: 180

Sacks
Tomlin: 254
Cowher: 267

Tackles For Loss
Tomlin: 255
Cowher: 593

Defensive Recap - Overall, Tomlin's defenses have given up 1,106 fewer yards than Cowher's. The greatest differences is in touchdowns allowed, specifically rushing touchdowns. Cowher's defenses allowed 21 more rushing touchdowns than Tomlin's.

Cowher's defenses forced more turnovers and got to the quarterback more often. The stat that jumps off the page is the Tackles For Loss. Cowher's defenses produced an astonishing 338 more tackles for loss than Tomlin's. The increase in sacks, tackles for loss, and turnovers implicates Cowher's defenses did a better job controlling the line of scrimmage.


OFFENSE

Passing Yds
Tomlin: 21,962
Cowher: 19,628

Passing TD's
Tomlin: 151
Cowher: 125

Rushing Yds
Tomlin: 11,015
Cowher: 13,061

Rushing TD's
Tomlin: 71
Cowher: 95

Turnovers
Tomlin: 105
Cowher: 130

Sacks Allowed
Tomlin: 268
Cowher: 224

Offensive Recap: Tomlin's era displays an obvious shift in philosophy. The offense shifted from run-first to pass-first. Part of the shift has to do with the maturation of Ben Roethlisberger and part of the shift has to do with a change in the NFL overall. Regardless of offensive philosophy, both offenses produced an almost equal amount of touchdowns (Tomlin - 222) and (Cowher - 220).

The greatest difference displayed is the sacks allowed. The offensive line has been a black eye for Tomlin during his tenure, but he also asked his quarterback to throw the ball 279 times more than Cowher. Surprisingly, Tomlin's teams have turned the ball over 25 times less than Cowher's, despite the increase in pass attempts.


FINAL THOUGHTS

Deciding which coach is better requires more analysis than the data here, but I was surprised by some of the data points. Tomlin's D gives up less yards and points and Cowher's D created more sacks and turnovers. Tomlin's offenses created significantly more passing touchdowns; Cowher's created more rushing touchdowns. Both coaches won a Super Bowl and had an identical number of wins during the 6 year review period.

So, you make the call. Who's the better coach?

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