I've been thinking about the upcoming Pirates baseball season and I can't help but think what would happen if "The Perfect Storm" occurs in the Pirates clubhouse. We've seen improvements to the club over the last few seasons, but they seem to have been missing a few key pieces to take the next step. That said, the organization added a few pieces that could either help the cause or push them into a 21st losing season. So, I thought of several best case scenarios that could put the Bucs in position to win the division and make the playoffs. Yes, win the division.
Here's my optimistic, Pirates-homer, glass half full, perfect storm analysis:
1B - Garrett Jones - Although Garrett Jones split time between RF and 1B last season, he put up his best statistical numbers of his career. He batted a respectable .274 with 27 hr and 86 RBI. For a good portion of the season, he was one of the club's most reliable hitters. Jones suprisingly led the club with hr/ab with 17.4. With a crowded outfield this season, it's likely Jones will spend most of his time at 1B in a platoon role with Gaby Sanchez. If Jones can produce similar numbers in 2013, the Pirates will have plenty of pop at 1B.
2b - Neil Walker - Walker missed a good bit of time toward the end of the 2012 season with a nagging back injury, but he still managed to post quality numbers at the plate. Walker hit .280 with 14 hr and 69 RBi. Walker has become a quality major league second baseman and his ability to hit the baseball makes him a very complete player. Walker could be on track for his best season ever. It wouldn't be shocking if Walker flirts with .300 and hits over 20 hr while playing quality defense.
SS - Clint Barmes - If the infield has a weak link, it's most definitely Clint Barmes. Barmes had a rough 2012 campaign at the plate as his .229 batting average was 20 points lower than his career average. Barmes baffles me in the field sometimes too. Last season, he often made very difficult plays seem routine while booting routine plays that are consistently made at the high school level. Barmes appeared to benefit from Clint Hurdle's inexplicable sense of loyalty. However, if Barmes can play decent defense and displays a batting average closer to his career average, he could contribute to the club winning a few more games.
3B - Pedro Alvarez. Pedro and I have a love/hate relationship that he isn't aware of. It's hard not to fall in love with Alvarez's raw power, but his inconsistent play and strikeout rate tend to drive the common fan insane. His production comes in bunches and then he likes to disappear for a few weeks. All said, Pedro had a breakout season of sorts in 2012. He popped 30 home runs while driving in 85 to help ease the pain of his strikeouts and .244 batting average. If Pedro can find a way to put it all together in 2013, he could rival Andrew McCutchen for the most beloved Pirate role. One interesting fact - The Pirates 3B/1B combo was second in the NL in home runs in 2012 and was 1 home run shy of tying the Washington Nationals for the most corner infield home runs in the NL. A more consistent Pedro could be a lot of fun to watch.
C - Russell Martin - Martin's best season was in 2007 with the Dodgers. Martin had a career high batting average (.293) while hitting 19 home runs. However, Martin's batting average has decreased every season after and bottomed out last season with the Yankees where he posted a lowly .211 average. The hitter friendly ballpark in New York helped his power numbers as he hit 39 home runs in two seasons with the Yankees. What Martin brings to the Pirates is superior defense compared to their recent starting catchers (Ryan Doumit, Rod Barajas). Martin could be a very nice addition if he can somehow, someway maintain similar power numbers and inch his batting average closer to his .260 career average - while offerng much improved defense.
Infield Recap
The Pirates 2013 infield could produce a lot of offense this season. It's quite possible that 3 of the 4 starting infielders will hit more than 20 home runs this season - with the exception being Clint Barmes...cause he sucks. Regardless of production, Russell Martin will be an improvement over Rod Barajas behind the dish - even if he only posts similar numbers to his 2012 Yankees season.
LF - Starling Marte - Marte struggled at times during his rookie campaign, but he did enough to display all of tools he has at his disposal. He hits for power, he can hit for average, he runs very well and is a savvy base stealer, he plays great defense, and he unquestionably has the best OF arm. In only 47 games played in 2012, Marte posted a .257 batting average with 5 home runs and 17 RBI. He also swiped 12 bases in that short period of time. It appears the Pirates plan to use Marte as a leadoff hitter and if he breaks out in 2013, he could be one of the best leadoff hitters in the NL. He has some work to do, but he's a career .303 hitter in the minor leagues and has all of the tools to be a very quality major league player.
CF - Andrew McCutchen - Cutch is the face of the organization and undoubtedly the Pirates best player. In 2012, McCutchen seemed superhuman for most of the season. Cutch finished 2012 with a .327 batting average accompanied by 31 home runs and 96 RBI. However, in the latter half of 2012, McCutchen's production dropped off considerably. Although McCutchen may be the fastest big leaguer when running from 1st to 3rd, his raw speed doesn't seem to translate to stealing bases. McCutchen has been working on the art of base stealing over the offseason and that addition to his arsenal makes him an even more complete player. If he can find a way to be productive for a complete season and increase his number of stolen bases, his 2013 season has the possibility of surpassing his tremendous 2012 season.
RF - Travis Snider - I hate to discount some of the other outfield options, but it seems evident that Travis Snider will be the starting right fielder when the team opens up the season in April. Snider was acquired from the Blue Jays for relief pitcher Brad Lincoln to help bolster the outfield. Snider was once a heralded prospect drafted in the frist round. He has a great deal of talent, but he's yet to put together a highly productive season. His best major league season was in 2010 with the Jays where he hit 14 home runs in less than 300 at bats. I have some doubts with Snider, but sometimes a change of scenery is the best thing for a player with his talent. If Snider flourishes with the Pirates, he could be a quality addition to the outfield. If not, but Pirates have a plethora of depth in the outfield with Jose Tabata likely topping that list.
Outfield Recap
The outfield features more question marks than answers, but if the perfect storm occurs in the outfield, but Pirates will have a very productive and capable squad. Jose Tabata and Alex Presley are quality depth options and both have had some success at the big league level.
Starting Pitchers
AJ Burnett - AJ revived his career in Pittsburgh last season. The Yankees practically paid the Bucs to take him and he ended up having a tremendous season as he cemented himself as the ace of the staff. Burnett led the Pirates in wins (16), ERA (3.51) and strikeouts (180). Coming from New York to Pittsburgh, Burnett allowed 30% fewer walks and 45% fewer home runs and posted his best season since his rookie season. AJ has won a minimum of 10 games in each of his last 8 seasons and there is no reason to believe he won't do the same in 2013. Burnett will be making his first opening day start of his quality major league career at 36 years of age. In a perfect storm, Burnett will have similar success in 2013 as he did in 2012. Increased offensive output may help his cause as well.
Wandy Rodriguez - Wandy had a phenomenal career in Houston and most Pirate fans (me included) hated when he pitched against the Pirates. Wandy was a strikeout pitcher and a front of the rotation guy for a long time. The Pirates acquired Rodriguez to bolster the rotation while they were making a playoff run last year. Although his strikeout numbers have dissipated, he is still a very quality major league starting pitcher. Despite a slow start in Pittsburgh, he calmed down and regained his composure. In 75 innings of work with the Pirates, Wandy posted a 3.72 ERA with a strikeout rate of 6.0/9IP and 9 of his 12 starts were "quality starts". AJ and Wandy make for a nice 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.
James McDonald - JMAC has proven that he can be extremely effective on the bump as a starting pitcher. At the midway point of the season, he appeared to lose his stuff. He had difficulty locating pitches and lost his confidence completely. Despite him falling apart, he finished the season with a 12-8 record and a 4.21 ERA with 7.95 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched. If JMAC can pull himself together in 2013, the Pirates could rival any team with their top 3 starting pitchers.
Franciso Liriano - I love this signing. A fresh start in the National League with the Pirates could be just what the doctor ordered for Liriano to revive his career ala AJ Burnett. He is an effective strikeout pitcher, but his control has been a problem in recent years. In his last 3 seasons, he's posted an ERA over 5 and a BB/9 IP over 5, despite maintaining a strikeout rate over 9K's per 9 IP. Hopefully, when he's not injuring himself trying to startle his children, he's working on getting his mind right and regaining the control he once had. In a perfect storm, Liriano returns to his dominating fashion and becomes a reliable 4th starter.
Jeff Locke, Kyle McPherson, Jeff Karstens, Charlie Morton - The 5th starter is up in the air at this point. It looks like Jeff Locke has the early lead, but it's hard to argue if the nod is given to Jeff Karstens. Over the last few seasons, there are several consistencies with Jeff Karstens: He's always fighting for a job and he consistently keeps the Pirates in the game when he starts. Morton is hopeful to return at some point from Tommy John surgery and Kyle McPherson has the ability to start as well.
Pitching Recap
If nothing else, the Pirates have more starting pitching depth than they've had in a very long time. I didn't even mention that Garrit Cole will likely join the rotation at some point early in the season. Cole will likely become the Pirates best pitcher quickly and Jameson Taillon might not be too far behind him. The Pirates pitching staff should be more than adequate for the season with the interchangeable parts they have on the roster.
My Take
I believe this is the year the Pirates break the Godforsaken losing streak. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if they contend for the division and make the playoffs. The young core of the club should all be hitting their prime together and the young additions and veterans might just give this team the spunk they need to get the job done.
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